Mapping the supply chains that move markets.
Source-grounded research that follows the money through entire supply chains - the suppliers, the chokepoints, and the public companies positioned to win. One theme at a time, starting with the AI build-out.
Latest research
Analog Devices (ADI): the AI premium on an analog cycle
ADI deep-dive: bear, base, and bull across 6 months, 1 year, 3 years, and 5 years. Buy read near $377 as data-center power growth meets a stretched multiple and elevated inventory.
Arista Networks (ANET) stock forecast: bear, base, bull to 2031
Deep research on ANET: bear/base/bull scenarios across 6mo, 1yr, 3yr, 5yr through 2031, ranging $68 to $350. 55x PE, 64% margins, 42% revenue concentration.
American Express (AXP): the credit-risk discount, 6mo-5yr outlook
American Express (AXP): premium payments with real credit risk, unlike Visa or Mastercard. Bear/base/bull scenarios across 6 months to 5 years. Rating: Buy.
AstraZeneca (AZN) stock: bull, base, bear case to 2031
AZN stock forecast: bull, base, bear scenarios across 6 months, 1yr, 3yr, and 5yr. Oncology growth vs Tagrisso patent cliff, IRA pricing, pending China risk.
Alibaba (BABA) stock forecast: bear, base, and bull case to 2031
BABA stock forecast: cloud/AI growth vs China macro, DoD lawsuit and Anthropic allegation risk. 6mo/1yr/3yr/5yr bear/base/bull scenarios. Hold, ~15x earnings.
BHP Group (BHP) stock forecast: bear, base, and bull case to 2031
BHP deep research: copper re-rating, iron ore headwinds from Simandou, Jansen potash optionality, and bear/base/bull price paths across 6 months, 1 year, 3 years, and 5 years. Hold, Overvalued.
Dell (DELL) stock: backlog vs. balance sheet, bear to bull to 2031
Dell (DELL) research: bear/base/bull scenarios across 6 months, 1 year, 3 years, and 5 years. Hold at $390 - AI-server backlog vs. thin margin and debt.
GE Vernova (GEV) stock forecast: bear, base, and bull to 2031
GE Vernova (GEV) stock: gas turbines and grid gear sold out through 2030, Wind still losing money. Hold rating, Overvalued at 61x forward earnings.
IBM stock: hybrid cloud reboot at a cloud-peer multiple, 2026-31
IBM stock forecast 2026-31: Hold, Overvalued. Bull/base/bear across 6 months to 5 years on a Red Hat and watsonx led reacceleration already priced near cloud-peer multiples, with the z17 mainframe cycle and Consulting drag as the swing factors.
KXIAY stock forecast: 6-month to 5-year bull/base/bear scenarios
Deep research on KXIAY: bear/base/bull scenarios across 6 months, 1 year, 3 years, and 5 years on Kioxia Holdings, a NAND flash maker at peak cycle margins with cyclical risk.
Merck (MRK) stock: bull, base, and bear case from 6 months to 5 years
Merck (MRK) forecast: bull, base, bear scenarios across 6 months to 5 years. Keytruda's 2028 patent cliff and IRA pricing vs. the pipeline; Hold rating, Undervalued.
Marvell (MRVL) stock: NVIDIA's $2B bet vs a rich AI-chip price
MRVL stock forecast: Hold, Overvalued. Bull/base/bear across 6mo-5yr on a custom-AI-silicon supplier at ~81x non-GAAP earnings, 82% customer concentration, and NVIDIA's new $2B stake.
MUFG stock: the 6-month to 5-year bull, base, and bear case
MUFG research: bear/base/bull scenarios across 6 months, 1 year, 3 years, and 5 years, plus the BoJ rate tailwind, the falling CET1 ratio, and the Morgan Stanley stake
Novartis (NVS) stock: bull, base, and bear case from 6 months to 5 years
Novartis (NVS) forecast with bull, base, bear scenarios across 6 months, 1 year, 3 years, and 5 years. Five growth brands vs. the Entresto and Cosentyx patent cliffs; Buy rating, Undervalued.
Palo Alto Networks (PANW): the platform bet, the CyberArk bill, and the bull/base/bear from 6 months to 5 years
Palo Alto Networks (PANW) stock analysis 2026: Hold. NGS ARR, organic growth versus the CyberArk consolidation, GAAP losses, and bear/base/bull scenarios across 6mo, 1yr, 3yr, 5yr.
Qualcomm stock (QCOM): bull, base, bear from 6 months to 5 years
Is QCOM a buy? Deep research on Qualcomm: Apple modem exit, automotive ramp, data center pivot, and scenarios across 6mo to 5yr.
Rio Tinto (RIO) stock forecast: a Hold as copper offsets iron ore
Rio Tinto stock forecast across 6 months to 5 years with bear, base, and bull price scenarios. Copper growth at Oyu Tolgoi offsets iron ore headwind. Hold at fair value.
RTX Stock Forecast: The Bear, Base, and Bull Case Through 2031
RTX Corp research: 6-month, 1-year, 3-year, and 5-year bear/base/bull scenarios, weighing its record $271B backlog against the GTF recall and political risk.
Royal Bank of Canada (RY): 6-Month to 5-Year Stock Outlook
Deep research on RY: bear, base, and bull scenarios across 6 months, 1 year, 3 years, and 5 years, plus the Q2 FY2026 earnings and mortgage-renewal-wall risk.
Shell stock: the LNG toll-taker at a discount
Shell trades at a wide discount to Exxon and Chevron on a cheaper, more disciplined portfolio. Here is the bull, base, and bear case through 2031.
SanDisk (SNDK): 60x move, priced for perfection?
SanDisk (SNDK) ran 60x from spinoff on an AI NAND shortage and $42B in hyperscaler contracts. Bull, base, and bear across six months to five years, and why Hold.
Seagate (STX) stock forecast: bull, base, bear to 2032
STX bull, base, and bear scenarios across 6 months to 5 years, plus why Seagate's HAMR lead comes with a richer multiple and real debt versus WDC.
Western Digital (WDC) stock forecast: bull, base, bear to 2031
WDC bull, base, and bear scenarios across 6 months, 1 year, 3 years, and 5 years, plus why a SanDisk stake gain is inflating its headline earnings.
Wells Fargo (WFC): the asset cap is gone, 6mo to 5yr outlook
Wells Fargo (WFC): the Fed asset cap is lifted. Bear/base/bull scenarios across 6 months, 1 year, 3 years, and 5 years. Rating: Hold.