#stock-analysis
American Express (AXP): the credit-risk discount, 6mo-5yr outlook
American Express (AXP): premium payments with real credit risk, unlike Visa or Mastercard. Bear/base/bull scenarios across 6 months to 5 years. Rating: Buy.
IBM stock: hybrid cloud reboot at a cloud-peer multiple, 2026-31
IBM stock forecast 2026-31: Hold, Overvalued. Bull/base/bear across 6 months to 5 years on a Red Hat and watsonx led reacceleration already priced near cloud-peer multiples, with the z17 mainframe cycle and Consulting drag as the swing factors.
KXIAY stock forecast: 6-month to 5-year bull/base/bear scenarios
Deep research on KXIAY: bear/base/bull scenarios across 6 months, 1 year, 3 years, and 5 years on Kioxia Holdings, a NAND flash maker at peak cycle margins with cyclical risk.
Marvell (MRVL) stock: NVIDIA's $2B bet vs a rich AI-chip price
MRVL stock forecast: Hold, Overvalued. Bull/base/bear across 6mo-5yr on a custom-AI-silicon supplier at ~81x non-GAAP earnings, 82% customer concentration, and NVIDIA's new $2B stake.
Palo Alto Networks (PANW): the platform bet, the CyberArk bill, and the bull/base/bear from 6 months to 5 years
Palo Alto Networks (PANW) stock analysis 2026: Hold. NGS ARR, organic growth versus the CyberArk consolidation, GAAP losses, and bear/base/bull scenarios across 6mo, 1yr, 3yr, 5yr.
Wells Fargo (WFC): the asset cap is gone, 6mo to 5yr outlook
Wells Fargo (WFC): the Fed asset cap is lifted. Bear/base/bull scenarios across 6 months, 1 year, 3 years, and 5 years. Rating: Hold.
Citigroup stock: cheapest money-center bank, bull/base/bear to 2031
C stock forecast 2026-31: Buy, Undervalued. Bull/base/bear across 6 months to 5 years on the cheapest money-center bank at 0.74x tangible book, with consent-order and Banamex execution risk.
Netflix (NFLX) stock forecast: bear, base, and bull to 2031
Netflix (NFLX) stock analysis: bear/base/bull forecast across 6 months, 1 year, 3 years, and 5 years, with margin expansion and ad-tier growth amid tariff risk.
Palantir (PLTR) stock forecast: Hold at ~80x, bear/base/bull to 2031
Palantir (PLTR) at 80x forward earnings: 85% growth, the Salesforce Army breach, SBC dilution, and a Hold-rated bull/base/bear across 6mo, 1yr, 3yr, and 5yr.
Morgan Stanley stock: 4x book at cycle peak, bull/base/bear to 2030
MS stock forecast 2026-30: Hold, Overvalued. Bull/base/bear across 6 months to 5 years on a wealth manager at 4.05x tangible book (2x median) with cyclical diversification collapse risk.
Procter & Gamble stock: 21x forward, Dividend King, Hold (bull/base/bear to 2031)
PG at 21x forward: Hold. Dividend King with margin pressure. Bull/base/bear scenarios: 6 months, 1 year, 3 years, and 5 years.
UnitedHealth (UNH) stock: is it a buy after the crash? Bull, base, bear to 2031
Deep research on UnitedHealth: bear/base/bull across 6 months, 1 year, 3 years, 5 years. Hold, Overvalued. MCR recovery is repricing not cost control; DOJ investigation over Optum.
Is BAC a buy at the top of its own range: Bank of America's deposit moat, the $81B bond overhang, and the bull/base/bear from 6 months to 5 years
Bank of America (BAC) stock analysis 2026: Hold. Deposit moat, NII repricing, $81B HTM overhang, and bear/base/bull scenarios across 6mo, 1yr, 3yr, 5yr.
Mastercard stock (MA) forecast: quality toll-road on sale at 25x - the bear, base, and bull case to 2031
Mastercard stock (MA) at ~25x: Buy-rated research on the toll-road model, cross-border & stablecoin risk, and bull/base/bear across 6mo, 1yr, 3yr, and 5yr.
Visa stock (V): is it a buy at 24x on 67% margins and zero credit risk? The DOJ, the CCCA, and the 6-month to 5-year scenarios
Visa stock (V) deep-dive: Buy at 24x on 67% margins. Bull/base/bear scenarios across 6 months, 1 year, 3 years, and 5 years, with DOJ and CCCA risks mapped.
ASML stock: is it a buy at 49x when the EUV monopoly faces a China cliff? The 6-month to 5-year scenarios
Is ASML a buy at ~$1,929? Deep research with bear/base/bull across 6 months, 1 year, 3 years, and 5 years: the EUV monopoly, China revenue cliff, MATCH Act risk, and a Hold rating.
Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) in its first year without Buffett: a $397B cash pile, a Hold, and the bear/base/bull case from 6 months to 5 years
Deep research on BRK.B under Greg Abel: bear, base, and bull scenarios across 6 months, 1 year, 3 years, and 5 years. Hold-rated at 1.45x book. Not advice.
Is JPM a buy at a record 3x tangible book with Dimon's exit ahead: the Hold case, the Basel risk, and the bull/base/bear from 6 months to 5 years
Is JPM a buy at 3x tangible book? Hold-rated deep dive: Dimon succession, Basel III, late-cycle credit, and bear/base/bull across 6mo, 1yr, 3yr, 5yr.