#financials
American Express (AXP): the credit-risk discount, 6mo-5yr outlook
American Express (AXP): premium payments with real credit risk, unlike Visa or Mastercard. Bear/base/bull scenarios across 6 months to 5 years. Rating: Buy.
MUFG stock: the 6-month to 5-year bull, base, and bear case
MUFG research: bear/base/bull scenarios across 6 months, 1 year, 3 years, and 5 years, plus the BoJ rate tailwind, the falling CET1 ratio, and the Morgan Stanley stake
Royal Bank of Canada (RY): 6-Month to 5-Year Stock Outlook
Deep research on RY: bear, base, and bull scenarios across 6 months, 1 year, 3 years, and 5 years, plus the Q2 FY2026 earnings and mortgage-renewal-wall risk.
Wells Fargo (WFC): the asset cap is gone, 6mo to 5yr outlook
Wells Fargo (WFC): the Fed asset cap is lifted. Bear/base/bull scenarios across 6 months, 1 year, 3 years, and 5 years. Rating: Hold.
Citigroup stock: cheapest money-center bank, bull/base/bear to 2031
C stock forecast 2026-31: Buy, Undervalued. Bull/base/bear across 6 months to 5 years on the cheapest money-center bank at 0.74x tangible book, with consent-order and Banamex execution risk.
Goldman Sachs (GS): Peak Multiples on Peak Earnings - The 6-Month to 5-Year Scenarios
Deep research on GS: bull/base/bear scenarios across 6 months, 1 year, 3 years, and 5 years; a ~3.0x tangible book multiple on cyclically inflated earnings; the wealth-pivot durability case unproven yet.
HSBC Holdings: Asia-wealth re-rating made, buyback paused, double-hit risk
HSBC trades at 2.0x tangible book on 17%+ RoTE Asia-wealth franchise, but buyback paused and rate cuts plus China/Hong Kong credit deterioration risk unwinding re-rating.
Morgan Stanley stock: 4x book at cycle peak, bull/base/bear to 2030
MS stock forecast 2026-30: Hold, Overvalued. Bull/base/bear across 6 months to 5 years on a wealth manager at 4.05x tangible book (2x median) with cyclical diversification collapse risk.
Is BAC a buy at the top of its own range: Bank of America's deposit moat, the $81B bond overhang, and the bull/base/bear from 6 months to 5 years
Bank of America (BAC) stock analysis 2026: Hold. Deposit moat, NII repricing, $81B HTM overhang, and bear/base/bull scenarios across 6mo, 1yr, 3yr, 5yr.
Mastercard stock (MA) forecast: quality toll-road on sale at 25x - the bear, base, and bull case to 2031
Mastercard stock (MA) at ~25x: Buy-rated research on the toll-road model, cross-border & stablecoin risk, and bull/base/bear across 6mo, 1yr, 3yr, and 5yr.
Visa stock (V): is it a buy at 24x on 67% margins and zero credit risk? The DOJ, the CCCA, and the 6-month to 5-year scenarios
Visa stock (V) deep-dive: Buy at 24x on 67% margins. Bull/base/bear scenarios across 6 months, 1 year, 3 years, and 5 years, with DOJ and CCCA risks mapped.
Is JPM a buy at a record 3x tangible book with Dimon's exit ahead: the Hold case, the Basel risk, and the bull/base/bear from 6 months to 5 years
Is JPM a buy at 3x tangible book? Hold-rated deep dive: Dimon succession, Basel III, late-cycle credit, and bear/base/bull across 6mo, 1yr, 3yr, 5yr.