Rio Tinto Research Dashboard
Interactive overview of Rio Tinto's business segments, valuation, and competitive positioning
Price & Valuation
$94.42
Stock Price (July 2, 2026)
$162.8B
Market Cap (RIO/RTNTF combined)
Key Multiples
| EV/EBITDA | ~7.0x |
| P/E (trailing) | ~16.8x |
| Div Yield | ~4.3% |
Rating & Outlook
Hold
House Rating (Loop Model)
Horizon Paths
| 6mo Base | $95 |
| 1yr Base | $100 |
| 3yr Base | $115 |
| 5yr Base | $130 |
Stock has doubled from 52-week low ($57.66); limited margin of safety at current levels.
FY2025 Financials
$57.6B
Revenue (up 7% YoY)
$25.4B
Underlying EBITDA (up 9% YoY)
Leverage
| Net Debt | $14.4B (18% gearing) |
| Div Payout | 402c/share (~60% ratio) |
Segment Performance & Outlook
| Segment |
FY2025 EBITDA |
% of Group |
YoY Growth |
Key Outlook |
| Iron Ore |
$15.2B |
60% |
-11% |
Structural headwinds from Simandou ramp, China demand easing |
| Copper |
$7.4B |
29% |
+114% |
Fast-growing: Oyu Tolgoi ramp to 500kt/yr by 2028-36, Resolution Copper derisked |
| Aluminium |
$4.4B |
17% |
+29% |
Vertically integrated; AP60 Quebec expansion; US tariff overhang absorbed |
| Lithium |
$0.2B |
1% |
— |
Arcadium acquisition 2025, 57kt LCE; spot price recovery risk/upside |
Competitive Landscape
| Ticker |
Company |
Market Cap (USD) |
Focus / Exposure |
| RIO |
Rio Tinto plc |
$162.8B |
Iron Ore $15.2B, Copper $7.4B, Al+Li $4.6B |
| BHP |
BHP Group |
$204.8B |
Iron Ore leader, Copper, Potash (Jansen) |
| VALE |
Vale S.A. |
$64.0B |
Iron Ore $16-17B, Nickel |
| FCX |
Freeport-McMoRan |
$91.0B |
Copper pure-play (Grasberg dominant) |
| AA |
Alcoa Corp |
$12.4B |
Aluminum pure-play |
| SCCO |
Southern Copper |
$110.0B |
Copper (largest reserves globally) |
| TECK |
Teck Resources |
$35.0B |
Copper/Zinc, QB2 ramp (Chile) |
Value Chain & Money Flow
Rio Tinto operates four distinct value chains with shared balance sheet:
- Iron Ore (60% EBITDA): Pilbara + Simandou ~70-75% into China steelmakers
- Copper (29% EBITDA): Oyu Tolgoi (Mongolia), Kennecott (Utah), Resolution (Arizona) - ramping to 500kt/yr by 2028-36
- Aluminium (17% EBITDA): Fully vertically integrated bauxite-alumina-metal; AP60 Quebec expansion
- Lithium (1% EBITDA): Arcadium acquisition 2025; Rincon + Fenix projects in Argentina
Key Risks & Opportunities
Bear Case
- Iron ore structural headwinds: Simandou self-cannibalization + Chinese demand easing (-1.5% 2026)
- Benchmark price likely falls to $85-89/dmt by 2027 (vs $90/dmt realized 2025)
- Arcadium lithium purchase ($7.6B) contribution minimal ($0.2B EBITDA 2025) - did management overpay?
- Mongolia sovereign/tax risk ($440M disputed assessment ongoing)
- Stock has doubled from 52-week low; valuation at fair-to-rich levels
Bull Case
- Oyu Tolgoi ramp to 500kt/yr by 2028-36: +114% copper EBITDA YoY in 2025, fastest-growing segment
- Resolution Copper derisked (land exchange March 2026); path to development clear
- ~3% CuEq CAGR to 2030, ~4%/yr unit-cost reduction roadmap on track
- Fair valuation at ~7x EV/EBITDA; ~4% dividend yield; capital discipline (walked away from $260B Glencore deal)
- Lithium spot price recovery could unlock value; copper supercycle upside to $5.50+/lb
Dashboard compiled July 2, 2026. Research is OSINT-based and point-in-time; figures move daily.
This is not investment advice.