NFLX - Netflix Inc Scorecard
Thesis: Netflix's expanding margins and fast-growing ad business support double-digit earnings growth from a historically depressed valuation, but decelerating subscriber growth, a new scale rival in the Paramount-WBD combination, and unresolved foreign-film tariff risk keep the near-term outlook balanced.
| Horizon |
Bear Case |
Base Case |
Bull Case |
| Today |
$74.19 |
$74.19 |
$74.19 |
| 6 months |
$56 |
$78 |
$95 |
| 1 year |
$52 |
$89 |
$111 |
| 3 years |
$51 |
$118 |
$167 |
| 5 years |
$49 |
$132 |
$206 |
Key Metrics (FY2026 Guidance)
| Revenue Guidance |
$50.7-51.7B (+12-14% YoY) |
| Operating Margin Target |
31.5% |
| Advertising Revenue Guide |
~$3B (doubling YoY) |
| Paid Memberships |
325M+ |