The deposit-franchise machine, the NII tailwind, and a fully-priced stock
Not investment advice. This dashboard is OSINT research only, point-in-time as of 2026-06-29. Prices, market cap, and all forward estimates move fast. See the full article for methodology, sourcing, and data-quality flags.
| Scenario | Today | 6 months | 1 year | 3 years | 5 years |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bull | $57.88 | $64 | $68 | $77 | $90 |
| Base | $57.88 | $60 | $62 | $67 | $77 |
| Bear | $57.88 | $51 | $48 | $50 | $56 |
Illustrative scenarios, not price targets or investment advice. Levels derived from stated TBV-growth and multiple assumptions (rating.json, 2026-06-29).
6mo: A hike lands, credit stays benign, multiple pushes to ~2.1x as the 52-wk high breaks (~$64).
1yr: ROTCE to 17-18%, P/TBV holds ~2.1-2.15x, buyback accretion (~$68, inside the $67-71 high-target band).
3yr: Durable 17-18% ROTCE, Basel relief funds accelerated buyback, multiple holds ~2.1x (~$77).
5yr: 17-18% ROTCE sustained, premium multiple held, share count shrinking; ~$42 TBV x ~2.1x (~$90).
6mo: NII tracks upper half of +6-8% guide, ROTCE ~16%, multiple ~2.0x, stock grinds up on TBV accretion (~$60).
1yr: Guide delivered, ROTCE ~16%, multiple compresses 2.0x -> ~1.95x; mild upside near the ~$63-64 sell-side mean (~$62).
3yr: Repricing runway runs, ROTCE ~15-16%, ~1.9x multiple, ~7%/yr TBV compounding does the work (~$67).
5yr: A solid mid-single-digit total-return compounder; ~$40.4 TBV x ~1.9x (~$77).
6mo: Office/CRE losses start crystallizing, recession scare compresses multiple toward ~1.75x (~$51).
1yr: Double-hit begins - Fed cuts, NII decelerates, provisions build, ROTCE to ~14%, multiple to ~1.6x (~$48).
3yr: Full cycle turned 2027-28, ROTCE reverts to ~13%, multiple parked near ~1.45-1.5x median; roughly dead money (~$50).
5yr: Cycle-peak premium given back; ~flat over 5 yrs while the bank stays fine; ~$36.8 TBV x ~1.55x (~$56).
| Ticker | P/TBV | ROTCE | CET1 | Efficiency | Rating (BAC only) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAC | 2.01x | 16.0% | 11.2% | 61% | Hold |
| JPM | 2.87x | 23.0% | ~15% | ~51% | -- |
| WFC | ~1.95x | 14.5% | ~11.8% | ~64% | -- |
| C | ~1.35x | 13.1% | 12.7% | ~66% | -- |
| USB | ~2.00x | 17.0% | ~10.5% | ~60% | -- |
| MS | 3.95x | 27.0% | -- | ~72% | -- |
| GS | 2.92x | 21.3% | ~14.6% | ~63% | -- |
| TFC | 1.69x | 13.8% | ~10.2% | ~61% | -- |
| PNC | ~2.25x | ~15% | ~10.5% | ~63% | -- |
Peer P/TBV and ROTCE: press-tier, point-in-time estimates (2026-06-29). See gates.md for sourcing. CET1/efficiency ratios approximate. Not investment advice.
~2.0x P/TBV is the TOP of BAC's own 10-yr range (1.31-2.04x, median ~1.59x) at an all-time-high price; 2.0x already fully discounts the 16% run-rate ROTCE, leaving no margin of safety - ~18% upside on flawless 17-18% execution vs ~25-30% downside on a normal reversion to ~13% ROTCE.
Six straight quarters of NII growth, FY2026 guide RAISED to +6-8%, a ~$450-490B/~2% repricing runway through ~2031 that lifts NII largely independent of the Fed, GWIM balances +10% YoY, and ROTCE inflecting 12.9% -> 14.2% -> 16.0%.
Elite low-cost deposit moat (0.51% consumer cost, 26% noninterest-bearing, 92% primacy, sub-15% beta through 525bps of hikes), ROTCE well above ~10.5-11% COE, strong capital generation - tempered by a 61% efficiency ratio (vs JPM ~51%) and an $81B HTM cost-of-carry suppressing the 2.07% NIM.
Two-way asset sensitivity (-$2.0B NII per -100bps) creates a recession double-hit (NII falls AND provisions build); $81B HTM unrealized loss is ~30% of TCE (economic, excluded from CET1); CRE/office maturity wall lands H2 2026-2027 - offset by a CET1 fortress (11.2% vs 10.0% floor), cleared CCAR, SCB frozen to Oct 2027, and a sticky insured deposit base.
Strong price trend (+25% 1yr, above 50/200-day MAs) and positive revisions (raised guide, lifted targets, 16 Strong Buy) net against an overbought all-time-high entry (RSI 71), a muted +0.3% reaction to a clear Q1 beat, and seven straight quarters of Berkshire selling - roughly neutral.