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Arm Holdings (ARM) - supply-chain scorer

Arm's ISA toll-gate: sortable table of every public company in the Arm ecosystem. Rating: Hold / Overvalued at ~160x fwd P/E (2026-06-25). Research is OSINT-based; not investment advice.

House Rating (2026-06-25)

Hold
Valuation: Overvalued
Valuation -2
Growth +2
Quality +1
Risk -2
Momentum 0

Composite -1 of 5. Strong IP franchise; entry price at ~160x fwd P/E forecloses most of the return even in the bull scenario.

Key Metrics

ADS Price (2026-06-25) $347.71
Market cap (approx) ~$370-383B
Float (non-SoftBank) ~141M ADS (~13%)
Fwd non-GAAP P/E ~160x
FY2026 revenue $4.92B (+23% YoY)
FY2027 revenue guide ~$10B (AGI CPU ramp)
Royalty / License split 53% / 47%
SoftBank ownership ~86.7%
Scenario flip signal Jul-29-2026 Q1 FY2027 royalty

Sources: C-0001, C-0002, C-0303, C-0304, C-0331. Figures are point-in-time and move daily.

Valuation vs Peers - Fwd non-GAAP P/E

ARM (this article) ~160x
NVDA (estimate) ~45x
AMD (estimate) ~40x
AVGO (estimate) ~30x
INTC (estimate) ~28x
QCOM (estimate) ~15x

As of 2026-06-25; all figures move daily. Peer multiples are analyst estimates from the rating model - not individually verified in this run. Source: rating.json peers block.

Four-horizon scenarios (illustrative - not price targets)

Horizon Bear Base Bull
6mo
$210		 Royalty at or below +11% YoY; multiple compresses to ~100x on FY2027 EPS ~$2.08; stock falls toward $200-210. Royalty 12-18% YoY; stock consolidates $300-330 as multiple drifts toward ~154x. Royalty re-accelerates 20%+; EPS revised to ~$2.45; stock recovers toward $400-430.
1yr
$165		 Deceleration confirmed; FTC escalates; FY2028 EPS ~$2.50 x 66x = ~$165. Royalty CAGR 17% confirmed; FY2028 EPS ~$2.80 x 102x = ~$285. CAGR 20%+; AGI CPU pipeline expands; FY2028 EPS ~$3.20 x 144x = ~$460.
3yr
$130		 AGI CPU stalled (FTC + customer conflict); CAGR 12%; FY2029 EPS ~$2.63 x 50x = ~$130. AGI CPU $1-2B revenue; CAGR ~17%; FY2029 EPS ~$4.00 x 65x = ~$260. AGI CPU $3-4B revenue; CAGR 20%; FY2029 EPS ~$5.90 x 80x = ~$470.
5yr
$110		 IP/CSS ~$8B + AGI CPU ~$1.5B = ~$9.5B total; EPS ~$3.11 x 35x = ~$110 [est]. IP/CSS ~$9.5B + AGI CPU ~$5B = $14.5B; EPS ~$4.97 x 49x = ~$245 [est]. Flat vs today. IP/CSS ~$10B + AGI CPU ~$12B = ~$22B; EPS ~$7.80 x 68x = ~$530 [est]. 9% annualised.
OSINT research as of 2026-06-25. All scenario figures are illustrative estimates, NOT price targets, forecasts, or investment advice. Current ADS price $347.71. Scenario flip catalyst: Q1 FY2027 royalty YoY growth rate (Jul-29-2026). Sources: rating.json, C-0001, C-0002, C-0017.

Table of 16 public companies across the supply chain, with ticker, market cap, what each makes, its position, and a bull and bear case. Sortable by column; use the column header buttons to sort.